PAKYA - GUIDELINES ON AVERAGING UP & TESTING COUNTERS .

 

PAKYA AUGUST 2021 GUIDELINES ON AVERAGING UP & TESTING COUNTERS

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berikut adalah guidelines baru untuk August 2021 on averaging up + testing counters before going all in

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updated Ogos 2021

(in the future might be different) 

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notice that this guideline is from my experience only

and also for my use only

saya explain kat sini just in case anyone might benefit from my experiences

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try read, then apply according to your own preferences

jika ada yg tak paham boleh terus tanya di komen

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PAKYA 2021 EXPERIMENT : GO ALL IN STRAIGHTAWAY OR DO TESTING FIRST? 

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saya buat experiment 2 kaunter

(I always experiment on everything) 

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kaunter A : bahagi 2 fasa. 

fasa 1 testing

fasa 2 all-in

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fasa 1 testing dengan 100K first

waktu nie ada 7 kaunter dalam fasa 1

each kaunter equal, 100K per kaunter

dari 7 kaunter tersebut, kaunter A paling perform 

naik steady lebih 40% dalam masa 20 hari lebih hold

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so, what I did was, 

saya sell semua 6 kaunter

and then go all in kaunter A

(this is averaging up) 

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dari 40% lebih profits

jadi 5% saja profits selepas average up

but not long after, naik balik jadi 30%

this 30% is multiple times bigger than 40% profits in fasa 1

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conclusion here : 

1. always pound on your winners

2. winners are often counters that act right 

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kaunter B : takde fasa testing

saya rasa dia nak naik

saya terus go all in. tanpa testing. 

amount sama macam kaunter B

result? drop 50K

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conclusion here? 

1. must always test first before going all in

2. no matter how confident you are on the setup

3. tak kira setups cantik macamana pun, if it doesnt act right, it will drop 

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GUIDELINE 1 : THE 2 PHASES OF TESTING

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(1) pertama sekali bila you jumpa kaunter2 yang nampak cantik, jangan terus masuk

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(2) teruskan screening dan list semua kaunter2 yang nampak cantik. on average, you should be able to find atleast 20 or so counters with good setups. if the market is bullish you might find 50. if the market is bearish, you might have only 2 or 3. if its US market instead of Bursa, multiply that number by 5

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(3) if you have more than 10 counters with good setups, try to filter out one by one until you only have 10

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(4) before going all in any counter, divide your total capital equally into those 10 counters @ 10% total capital in each counter

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(5) why 10, not 15, not 20, not 30? because, in my opinion, the more counters you have the less likely you will be selective. 10 is good enough. it means you have to be strict and only choose the best 10. and also, 10 is easier to divide. however, its really your choice how much you want to divide your capital 

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(5) monitor over the next few weeks mana yg perform dan tak perform. those with steady rising and high ROI% = perform. 

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this is fasa 1 testing

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(6) fasa 1 testing should take 2-3 weeks atleast

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(7) kaunter2 yang tak perform dan negative ROI, selalunya akan show itself in the first 2 weeks. if it continues to be tak perform, sideways, or drops further, boleh sell. kaunter2 nie yg saya panggil as : "counters which does not act right"

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(8) tak perlu tunggu 10% negative or more

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(9) kaunter2 yg slow tapi positive, hold first

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(10) waktu bila nak all in? bila you ada kaunter yg dh perform, steadily rising, and you konfiden akan naik lagi.

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(11) use your own judgement to decide whether boleh naik lagi ke tak. in general, selagi takde tanda2 reversal pattern, masih tak terlampau jauh dari 20 and 50 MA, and few other patterns yg saya dah describe dalam website, should be ok to average up and ride the trend

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(12) with full confidence, sell all and go all in that kaunter yg perform.

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(13) dont worry about ROI% yang drop. memang expected during averaging up. soon, if you are right in your analysis, the counters will go up even further and your profits will be multiple! 

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(14) last but not least, NEVER EVER average down your losses. NEVER EVER average down counters that does not act right